>> if you agree with the polls president obama has an edge. if you are trying to factor in history, i will remind you of this. in 2004, late into the night when john kerry and george bush were going head-to-head in ohio, southwestern ohio, the counties around cincinnati, won it for george bush and gave hum four more years. if you are taking the model of 2010, how all these people came out to vote on issues like unemployment, debt and deficit spending and obamacare, well you could make an argument those three issues are still out there. so are those voters still out there? you would argue they are but will they turn out to vote? that will be the key in early november. melissa: bill hemmer, thank you so much. great stuff. appreciate it. >> good to be with you, melissa. melissa: football fans everywhere, hold your breath. the nfl and the referees union may be yards away from getting a deal done. how will the lockout affect the league's bottom line? we're crunching those numbers next. >>> no secret economic growth is sluggish. maybe $488 billion i